FEDERAL AGRICULTURAL MORTGAGE CORP 8-K Analysis & Summary – 2/21/2025

⚠️This is not investment advice.

⚠️ This is an experimental project and this report is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Conduct your own thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. ⚠️

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Filing date:

02/21/2025


TLDR:

Farmer Mac announced its 2024 financial results, including an 8% increase in net interest income and a 7% increase in the quarterly common stock dividend, and discussed its outlook for 2025.

ELI5:

Farmer Mac, a company that helps farmers get loans, announced they made more money this year and are increasing their dividend (payment to shareholders). They also shared a presentation for investors highlighting their strengths.


Accession #:

0000845877-25-000032

Published on

Analyst Summary

  • Net interest income grew 8% year-over-year to $353.9 million.
  • Net effective spread increased 4% from the prior-year period to $339.6 million.
  • Net income attributable to common stockholders was $180.4 million.
  • Core earnings of $171.6 million, or $15.64 per diluted common share.
  • Total core capital of $1.5 billion and a Tier 1 Capital Ratio of 14.2% as of December 31, 2024.
  • Quarterly dividend of $1.50 per share on all three classes of common stock, representing a 7% increase.
  • Operating Profit Margin: 71.3%
  • Net Profit Margin: 57.2%
  • Return on Assets (ROA): 0.66%
  • Return on Equity (ROE): 13.9%
  • Basic EPS = $16.59, Diluted EPS = $16.44
  • Current Ratio: 0.60
  • Quick Ratio (Acid-Test Ratio): 0.60
  • Cash Ratio: 0.035
  • Debt-to-Equity Ratio: 20.04
  • Debt-to-Assets Ratio: 0.95
  • Interest Coverage Ratio (Times Interest Earned): 1.19
  • Days Sales Outstanding (DSO): 364.2 days
  • Days Payable Outstanding (DPO): 214.2 days
  • Asset Turnover: 0.012
  • Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E): 12.66
  • Price-to-Book Ratio (P/B): 1.40
  • Price-to-Sales Ratio (P/S): 5.75
  • Enterprise Value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA): 20.14
  • Revenue Growth: 3.6%
  • Net Income Growth: 3.6%
  • EPS Growth: 4%

Opportunities and Risks

  • Availability of debt and equity financing.
  • Legislative or regulatory developments.
  • Fluctuations in the fair value of assets.
  • Economic conditions affecting agricultural lending and borrower repayment capacity.
  • Interest rate risk.
  • Developments in the financial markets.
  • Effects of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.
  • Severe weather, flooding, and drought.

Potential Implications

Stock Price

  • The dividend increase could positively impact the stock price.
  • Strong earnings and capital position could reassure investors.

SEC Filing Report: Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (Farmer Mac) 8-K

Executive Summary

This report analyzes Farmer Mac’s 8-K filing dated February 21, 2025. The filing primarily concerns the announcement of FY2024 financial results, a dividend increase, and the posting of an investor slide presentation. Key takeaways include a 7% increase in the quarterly common stock dividend, continued growth in net interest income, and a strong capital position. The overall assessment is cautiously positive, reflecting Farmer Mac’s consistent performance and commitment to its mission. A “Hold” recommendation is appropriate, pending further analysis of the full 10-K.

Company Overview

Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (Farmer Mac) is a government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) focused on providing liquidity and access to credit for American agriculture and rural infrastructure. It operates in a large agricultural mortgage market and is regulated by the Farm Credit Administration (FCA).

Detailed Analysis

Financial Performance

The 8-K highlights Farmer Mac’s financial results for the year ended December 31, 2024. Key performance indicators (KPIs) include:

  • Net interest income grew 8% year-over-year to $353.9 million.
  • Net effective spread increased 4% from the prior-year period to $339.6 million.
  • Net income attributable to common stockholders was $180.4 million, compared to $172.8 million in the same period last year.
  • Core earnings of $171.6 million, or $15.64 per diluted common share.
  • Total core capital of $1.5 billion and a Tier 1 Capital Ratio of 14.2% as of December 31, 2024.

The increase in net interest income and net effective spread indicates improved profitability in Farmer Mac’s core lending operations. The strong core capital and Tier 1 Capital Ratio suggest a healthy financial position and the ability to withstand potential economic downturns.

Dividend Announcement

Farmer Mac’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $1.50 per share on all three classes of common stock, representing a 7% increase. This marks the fourteenth consecutive year of dividend increases, signaling management’s confidence in the company’s future earnings potential. Dividends were also declared on preferred stock series D, E, F, and G.

Investor Presentation

The 8-K references an investor slide presentation posted on Farmer Mac’s website. The presentation emphasizes Farmer Mac’s unique position, growth opportunities, and value creation. Key themes include:

  • Mission-focused approach to strengthening rural America.
  • Central role in a large agricultural mortgage market.
  • Proven, rigorous underwriting standards.
  • Consistent outperformance in credit quality compared to peers.
  • Strong, growing capital base.
  • Quality earnings driving strong dividends.

The investor presentation highlights Farmer Mac’s competitive advantages and growth strategies. The emphasis on credit quality and risk management is reassuring, given the inherent risks associated with agricultural lending.

Non-GAAP Measures

Farmer Mac uses non-GAAP measures such as “core earnings” and “net effective spread” to assess its financial performance. These measures exclude certain items, such as fair value fluctuations and the effects of consolidated trusts, to provide a clearer picture of the company’s underlying profitability. While non-GAAP measures can be useful, investors should also consider GAAP measures to gain a comprehensive understanding of Farmer Mac’s financial condition.

Risk Factors

The press release includes a section on forward-looking statements and associated risks. Key risk factors include:

  • Availability of debt and equity financing.
  • Legislative or regulatory developments.
  • Fluctuations in the fair value of assets.
  • Economic conditions affecting agricultural lending and borrower repayment capacity.
  • Interest rate risk.
  • Developments in the financial markets.
  • Effects of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.
  • Severe weather, flooding, and drought.

These risk factors are typical for financial institutions operating in the agricultural sector. Investors should carefully consider these risks when evaluating Farmer Mac’s investment potential.

Financial Statement Analysis (Consolidated Balance Sheets)

December 31, 2024 (in thousands) December 31, 2023 (in thousands)
Total Assets $31,324,742 $29,524,382
Total Liabilities $29,835,716 $28,112,519
Total Equity $1,489,026 $1,411,863

Total assets increased, indicating growth. Total liabilities also increased, but equity also saw an increase, suggesting a healthy balance sheet.

Financial Statement Analysis (Consolidated Statements of Operations)

December 31, 2024 (in thousands) December 31, 2023 (in thousands)
Net Interest Income $353,867 $327,547
Net Income Attributable to Common Stockholders $180,428 $172,838
Diluted Earnings per Common Share $16.44 $15.81

Both Net Interest Income and Net Income Attributable to Common Stockholders increased, indicating improved profitability.

Conclusion and Actionable Insights

Farmer Mac’s 8-K filing presents a positive picture of the company’s financial performance and strategic direction. The dividend increase, strong capital position, and emphasis on credit quality are all encouraging signs. However, investors should be aware of the inherent risks associated with agricultural lending and the potential impact of economic conditions and regulatory changes.

Overall Assessment: Cautiously Positive.

Recommendation: Hold. While the 8-K is positive, a full review of the 10-K is needed before making a buy/sell decision. Further analysis should focus on:

  • A deeper dive into the MD&A section of the 10-K to understand management’s outlook and key performance drivers.
  • A detailed review of the risk factors to assess the potential impact of various economic and regulatory scenarios.
  • An analysis of Farmer Mac’s competitive position and its ability to maintain its market share.

Financial Ratio and Metric Analysis

Profitability

  • Gross Profit Margin: Not applicable as the company is not a typical retailer or manufacturer with a cost of goods sold. The primary revenue driver is net interest income and fees.
  • Operating Profit Margin:

    • Ratio/Metric: Operating Income / Total Revenue = $258,103 / ($361,990 + $1052 – $1147) = 0.713 or 71.3%
    • Trend: Previous year Operating Profit Margin = $253,101 / ($349,207 + 0) = 0.725 or 72.5%. Percentage Change: (71.3 – 72.5) / 72.5 = -1.65%
    • Industry: Compared to other financial institutions, a 71.3% operating profit margin is very high, suggesting efficient operations and strong revenue generation relative to operating expenses.
  • Net Profit Margin:

    • Ratio/Metric: Net Income / Total Revenue = $207,193 / ($361,990 + $1052 – $1147) = 0.572 or 57.2%
    • Trend: Previous year Net Profit Margin = $200,003 / ($349,207 + 0) = 0.573 or 57.3%. Percentage Change: (57.2 – 57.3) / 57.3 = -0.17%
    • Industry: A net profit margin of 57.2% is exceptionally strong for a financial institution, indicating effective cost management and profitable operations.
  • Return on Assets (ROA):

    • Ratio/Metric: Net Income / Total Assets = $207,193 / $31,324,742 = 0.0066 or 0.66%
    • Trend: Previous year ROA = $200,003 / $29,524,382 = 0.0068 or 0.68%. Percentage Change: (0.66 – 0.68) / 0.68 = -2.94%
    • Industry: An ROA of 0.66% is within a reasonable range for financial institutions, although there is room for improvement compared to top performers.
  • Return on Equity (ROE):

    • Ratio/Metric: Net Income / Total Equity = $207,193 / $1,489,026 = 0.139 or 13.9%
    • Trend: Previous year ROE = $200,003 / $1,411,863 = 0.142 or 14.2%. Percentage Change: (13.9 – 14.2) / 14.2 = -2.11%
    • Industry: An ROE of 13.9% is a good return, suggesting the company is effectively using equity to generate profits.
  • Earnings Per Share (EPS) – Basic and Diluted:

    • Ratio/Metric: Basic EPS = $16.59, Diluted EPS = $16.44
    • Trend: Previous year Basic EPS = $15.97, Diluted EPS = $15.81. Basic EPS Percentage Change: (16.59 – 15.97) / 15.97 = 3.88%. Diluted EPS Percentage Change: (16.44 – 15.81) / 15.81 = 4.0%
    • Industry: EPS is a key metric for investors. These values are relatively high, indicating strong profitability on a per-share basis.

Liquidity

  • Current Ratio:

    • Ratio/Metric: Current Assets / Current Liabilities. We need to define what constitutes current assets and liabilities. Let’s assume: Current Assets = Cash + Investment Securities + Farmer Mac Securities + USDA Securities + Loans held for sale = 1,024,007 + 5,973,301 + 8,232,234 + 2,371,352 + 6,170 = 17,607,064. Current Liabilities = Notes Payable + Debt securities of consolidated trusts held by third parties = 27,371,174 + 1,929,628 = 29,300,802. Current Ratio = 17,607,064 / 29,300,802 = 0.60
    • Trend: Previous year Current Assets = 888,707 + 4,979,504 + 9,745,548 + 2,355,412 + 0 = 17,969,171. Previous year Current Liabilities = 26,336,542 + 1,351,069 = 27,687,611. Previous year Current Ratio = 17,969,171 / 27,687,611 = 0.65. Percentage Change: (0.60 – 0.65) / 0.65 = -7.69%
    • Industry: A current ratio of 0.60 suggests that the company may have some difficulty meeting its short-term obligations with its current assets.
  • Quick Ratio (Acid-Test Ratio):

    • Ratio/Metric: (Current Assets – Inventory) / Current Liabilities. Since inventory is not applicable, we will exclude loans held for sale. (17,607,064 – 6,170) / 29,300,802 = 0.60
    • Trend: Previous year (17,969,171 – 0) / 27,687,611 = 0.65. Percentage Change: (0.60 – 0.65) / 0.65 = -7.69%
    • Industry: Similar to the current ratio, a quick ratio of 0.60 indicates potential liquidity challenges.
  • Cash Ratio:

    • Ratio/Metric: Cash and Cash Equivalents / Current Liabilities = 1,024,007 / 29,300,802 = 0.035
    • Trend: Previous year Cash Ratio = 888,707 / 27,687,611 = 0.032. Percentage Change: (0.035 – 0.032) / 0.032 = 9.38%
    • Industry: A cash ratio of 0.035 is very low, indicating the company holds a minimal amount of cash relative to its short-term liabilities.

Solvency/Leverage

  • Debt-to-Equity Ratio:

    • Ratio/Metric: Total Liabilities / Total Equity = 29,835,716 / 1,489,026 = 20.04
    • Trend: Previous year Debt-to-Equity Ratio = 28,112,519 / 1,411,863 = 19.91. Percentage Change: (20.04 – 19.91) / 19.91 = 0.65%
    • Industry: A very high debt-to-equity ratio of 20.04 indicates the company relies heavily on debt financing.
  • Debt-to-Assets Ratio:

    • Ratio/Metric: Total Liabilities / Total Assets = 29,835,716 / 31,324,742 = 0.95
    • Trend: Previous year Debt-to-Assets Ratio = 28,112,519 / 29,524,382 = 0.95. Percentage Change: (0.95 – 0.95) / 0.95 = 0%
    • Industry: A debt-to-assets ratio of 0.95 suggests that a significant portion of the company’s assets are financed by debt.
  • Interest Coverage Ratio (Times Interest Earned):

    • Ratio/Metric: EBIT / Interest Expense = (Net Income + Income Tax Expense + Interest Expense) / Interest Expense = (207,193 + 50,910 + 1,249,649) / 1,249,649 = 1.19
    • Trend: Previous year Interest Coverage Ratio = (200,003 + 53,098 + 1,064,741) / 1,064,741 = 1.24. Percentage Change: (1.19 – 1.24) / 1.24 = -4.03%
    • Industry: An interest coverage ratio of 1.19 is low, indicating the company has limited ability to cover its interest expenses with its earnings before interest and taxes.

Activity/Efficiency

  • Inventory Turnover: Not applicable.
  • Days Sales Outstanding (DSO):

    • Ratio/Metric: (Average Accounts Receivable / Total Revenue) * 365. Accounts Receivable = Accrued interest receivable + Guarantee and commitment fees receivable = 310,592 + 50,499 = 361,091. Total Revenue = 361,990 + $1052 – $1147 = 361,895. DSO = (361,091 / 361,895) * 365 = 364.2 days
    • Trend: Previous year Accounts Receivable = 287,128 + 49,832 = 336,960. Total Revenue = 349,207. Previous year DSO = (336,960 / 349,207) * 365 = 352.4 days. Percentage Change: (364.2 – 352.4) / 352.4 = 3.35%
    • Industry: A DSO of 364.2 days is very high, suggesting the company takes a long time to collect its receivables.
  • Days Payable Outstanding (DPO):

    • Ratio/Metric: (Average Accounts Payable / Total Revenue) * 365. Accounts Payable = Accounts payable and accrued expenses = 212,527. DPO = (212,527 / 361,895) * 365 = 214.2 days
    • Trend: Previous year Accounts Payable = 76,662. Previous year DPO = (76,662 / 349,207) * 365 = 80.2 days. Percentage Change: (214.2 – 80.2) / 80.2 = 167.1%
    • Industry: A DPO of 214.2 days is very high, suggesting the company takes a long time to pay its suppliers.
  • Asset Turnover:

    • Ratio/Metric: Total Revenue / Total Assets = 361,895 / 31,324,742 = 0.012
    • Trend: Previous year Asset Turnover = 349,207 / 29,524,382 = 0.012. Percentage Change: (0.012 – 0.012) / 0.012 = 0%
    • Industry: An asset turnover of 0.012 is very low, indicating the company is not generating much revenue from its assets.

Valuation

  • Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E):

    • Ratio/Metric: Stock Price / EPS = $208.09 / $16.44 = 12.66
    • Industry: A P/E ratio of 12.66 suggests the company is reasonably valued compared to its earnings.
  • Price-to-Book Ratio (P/B):

    • Ratio/Metric: Market Cap / Book Value of Equity. Market Cap = Shares Outstanding * Stock Price. Assuming 10,000,000 shares outstanding (approximation). Market Cap = 10,000,000 * $208.09 = $2,080,900,000 or $2,080,900 in thousands. P/B = 2,080,900 / 1,489,026 = 1.40
    • Industry: A P/B ratio of 1.40 suggests the market values the company at a premium compared to its book value.
  • Price-to-Sales Ratio (P/S):

    • Ratio/Metric: Market Cap / Total Revenue = 2,080,900 / 361,895 = 5.75
    • Industry: A P/S ratio of 5.75 suggests investors are paying $5.75 for every dollar of the company’s revenue.
  • Enterprise Value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA):

    • Ratio/Metric: (Market Cap + Total Debt – Cash) / EBITDA. Total Debt = Notes payable + Debt securities of consolidated trusts held by third parties = 27,371,174 + 1,929,628 = 29,300,802. Cash = 1,024,007. EBITDA = Net Income + Interest Expense + Taxes + Depreciation and Amortization. Depreciation and Amortization is not explicitly given, so we will assume it is zero. EBITDA = 207,193 + 1,249,649 + 50,910 = 1,507,752. EV = (2,080,900 + 29,300,802 – 1,024,007) = 30,357,695. EV/EBITDA = 30,357,695 / 1,507,752 = 20.14
    • Industry: An EV/EBITDA ratio of 20.14 is relatively high, suggesting the company may be overvalued compared to its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.

Growth Rates

  • Revenue Growth:

    • Ratio/Metric: (Current Year Revenue – Previous Year Revenue) / Previous Year Revenue = (361,895 – 349,207) / 349,207 = 0.036 or 3.6%
    • Industry: A revenue growth rate of 3.6% indicates moderate growth in the company’s revenue.
  • Net Income Growth:

    • Ratio/Metric: (Current Year Net Income – Previous Year Net Income) / Previous Year Net Income = (207,193 – 200,003) / 200,003 = 0.036 or 3.6%
    • Industry: A net income growth rate of 3.6% indicates moderate growth in the company’s net income.
  • EPS Growth:

    • Ratio/Metric: (Current Year EPS – Previous Year EPS) / Previous Year EPS = (16.44 – 15.81) / 15.81 = 0.04 or 4%
    • Industry: An EPS growth rate of 4% indicates moderate growth in the company’s earnings per share.

Other Relevant Metrics

  • Net Effective Spread (Non-GAAP): This metric represents the company’s net interest income adjusted for certain items related to consolidated trusts and financial derivatives. It provides a view of the company’s core earnings from its lending activities. The YoY % Change is 4%.
  • Core EPS (Non-GAAP): This metric adjusts GAAP EPS for certain non-recurring items, such as gains/losses on financial derivatives and hedging activities. It provides a view of the company’s sustainable earnings power. The YoY % Change is 0%.

Commentary

AGM’s financial performance shows a mixed picture. While profitability metrics like operating and net profit margins remain exceptionally strong, there was a slight decrease compared to the previous year. Liquidity ratios are concerning, indicating potential challenges in meeting short-term obligations. The company’s high leverage, as indicated by the debt-to-equity and debt-to-assets ratios, warrants careful monitoring.

⚠️ This is an experimental project and this report is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Conduct your own thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. ⚠️