Analyst Summary
- Genco Shipping & Trading estimates a Q1 2025 TCE rate of approximately $11,700 per day for approximately 95% of its owned available days.
- The TCE figure is inclusive of scrubber premium and is subject to change based on final financial results.
- The company estimates approximately 3,450 owned fleet available days for Q1 2025.
- Freight rates in March 2025 have increased, particularly for Capesize vessels, benefiting the company due to its spot market presence.
- Revenue from some fixtures entered into in Q1, including certain Brazil to China voyages, will be recognized in Q2 2025 due to load-to-discharge voyage accounting.
- Estimated daily vessel operating expenses (DVOE) are approximately $6,500 per vessel per day for Q1 2025.
Potential Implications
Company Performance
- Increased freight rates in March 2025 could positively impact Q2 2025 earnings as revenue from certain Q1 fixtures is recognized in Q2.
- The estimated TCE rate provides insight into the company’s expected profitability for Q1 2025.
- The estimated DVOE provides insight into the company’s cost structure for Q1 2025.
Stock Price
- Positive TCE rate update could lead to a positive short-term stock price reaction.
- Any revisions to the TCE estimate or DVOE could impact investor sentiment.