Karat Packaging Inc. 10-K Analysis & Summary – 3/14/2025

⚠️This is not investment advice.

⚠️ This is an experimental project and this report is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Conduct your own thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. ⚠️

Filing date:

03/14/2025


TLDR:

ELI5:

Karat Packaging made a bit more money selling their products, but they spent even more, so their profit went down a little. They also found a problem with how they manage their money, but they’re working on fixing it. They’re trying to sell more green products online, which could help them grow.


Accession #:

0001628280-25-012816

Published on

Analyst Summary

  • Net sales increased by 4.2%, driven by volume growth, while net income decreased by 7.1% due to a 14.1% increase in operating expenses.
  • Gross margin improved to 38.9% from 37.7% due to favorable vendor pricing and product mix.
  • Adjusted EBITDA decreased by 6.5%, with a margin of 13.1%.
  • A material weakness in internal control over financial reporting related to segregation of duties was identified.
  • The company is shifting towards an asset-light model by increasing imports and scaling back domestic manufacturing.
  • Eco-friendly product sales increased to 33.6% of total sales, and the company maintained a 100% retention rate for its top 100 customers.
  • The company is focusing on growth opportunities in the supermarket segment and e-commerce channel.
  • Profitability metrics such as operating and net income margins declined.
  • Increased leverage and decreased efficiency ratios raise concerns about its financial health.
  • Adjusted EBITDA decreased from $59,072k to $55,252k, a -6.47% decrease.
  • Free Cash Flow decreased from $44,738k to $43,914k, a -1.84% decrease.

Opportunities and Risks

  • Risk: A material weakness in internal control over financial reporting could lead to misstatements in financial reporting.
  • Risk: The single-use disposable foodservice products industry is highly competitive.
  • Risk: Raw material price increases could negatively impact margins.
  • Risk: Reliance on third-party manufacturers outside the U.S. could negatively impact the business during global supply chain disruptions.
  • Risk: Negative economic conditions could decrease demand for the company’s products.
  • Opportunity: Strategic emphasis on expanding into the supermarket segment presents a significant growth opportunity.
  • Opportunity: Continued investment in the e-commerce channel could drive higher margin sales.
  • Opportunity: Increasing demand for eco-friendly products provides an opportunity for growth.
  • Opportunity: Expanding the distribution network could improve customer service and market penetration.

Potential Implications

Company Performance

  • The material weakness in internal controls could lead to financial misstatements and negatively impact investor confidence.
  • Increased operating expenses could continue to pressure net income and profitability.
  • Successful expansion into the supermarket segment and e-commerce channel could drive revenue growth and improve margins.
  • The shift towards eco-friendly products could enhance the company’s brand image and attract environmentally conscious customers.
  • The decrease in Adjusted EBITDA reflects a decline in operational efficiency or increased costs not fully captured by net income.
  • The slight decrease in free cash flow is consistent with the decrease in net income and Adjusted EBITDA. It suggests that the company’s ability to generate cash from its operations has slightly weakened.

Stock Price

  • The material weakness in internal controls and decreased profitability could negatively impact the stock price.
  • Positive developments in remediating the internal control weakness and improving profitability could boost investor confidence and increase the stock price.
  • Successful execution of growth strategies in the supermarket and e-commerce segments could also positively influence the stock price.

SEC Filing Report: Karat Packaging Inc. (10-K) – Fiscal Year Ended December 31, 2024

Executive Summary

This report analyzes Karat Packaging Inc.’s 10-K filing for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2024. Key findings include a moderate increase in net sales driven by volume growth, improved gross margins due to strategic sourcing shifts, and a decrease in net income due to increased operating expenses. The company is transitioning to a more asset-light model, expanding its e-commerce presence, and focusing on eco-friendly products. A material weakness in internal controls related to segregation of duties remains. Overall, a cautious “Hold” rating is suggested, pending further evidence of successful remediation of internal control weaknesses and sustained profitability improvements.

Company Overview

Karat Packaging Inc. is a distributor and manufacturer of disposable foodservice products and related items. The company offers a wide range of products in plastic, paper, biopolymer-based, and compostable forms. Karat serves national and regional distributors, restaurant chains, retail establishments, and online customers. The company is focused on product innovation, sustainability, and customized solutions.

Detailed Analysis

Management’s Discussion and Analysis (MD&A)

Management highlights a strategic shift towards a more asset-light model by increasing imports and scaling back domestic manufacturing. They emphasize expanding the vendor network and diversifying the supplier base. The tone is generally positive, focusing on growth opportunities in the supermarket segment and e-commerce channel. However, the narrative acknowledges challenges such as raw material price fluctuations, competitive pricing pressures, and the need to accurately forecast demand.

Red Flags: The MD&A mentions a material weakness in internal control over financial reporting related to segregation of duties. This is a significant concern and requires close monitoring.

Uncommon Metrics: The report highlights the increasing percentage of sales from eco-friendly products (33.6% in 2024 vs. 32.7% in 2023) and the major customer retention rate (100% for top 100 customers).

Financial Statement Analysis

Key Ratios and Trends:

  • Net Sales: Increased by 4.2% year-over-year, driven by volume growth.
  • Gross Margin: Improved to 38.9% from 37.7% due to favorable vendor pricing and product mix.
  • Operating Expenses: Increased by 14.1%, impacting operating income.
  • Net Income: Decreased by 7.1% due to higher operating expenses.
  • Adjusted EBITDA: Decreased by 6.5%, with a margin of 13.1%.
  • Eco-Friendly Product Sales: Increased to 33.6% of total sales.

Financial Statement Highlights:

Financial Metric 2024 (in thousands) 2023 (in thousands) Change
Net Sales $422,633 $405,651 +4.2%
Gross Profit $164,329 $153,043 +7.4%
Operating Income $37,761 $42,076 -10.3%
Net Income $30,824 $33,180 -7.1%

Comparative and Trend Analysis:

The company’s revenue growth is moderate, but the improved gross margin is a positive sign. However, the significant increase in operating expenses is a concern. The shift towards eco-friendly products aligns with industry trends and could be a growth driver. The company’s focus on expanding its distribution network and e-commerce channel is also a positive strategy.

Risk and Opportunity Assessment

Risks:

  • Material Weakness in Internal Controls: The identified material weakness in internal control over financial reporting is a significant risk that could lead to misstatements in financial reporting.
  • Competition: The single-use disposable foodservice products industry is highly competitive.
  • Raw Material Price Fluctuations: Raw material price increases could negatively impact margins.
  • Supply Chain Disruptions: Reliance on third-party manufacturers outside the U.S. could negatively impact the business during global supply chain disruptions.
  • Economic Conditions: Negative economic conditions could decrease demand for the company’s products.

Opportunities:

  • Growth in Supermarket Segment: The company’s strategic emphasis on expanding into the supermarket segment presents a significant growth opportunity.
  • E-commerce Expansion: Continued investment in the e-commerce channel could drive higher margin sales.
  • Eco-Friendly Products: Increasing demand for eco-friendly products provides an opportunity for growth.
  • Distribution Network Expansion: Expanding the distribution network could improve customer service and market penetration.

Conclusion and Actionable Insights

Karat Packaging Inc. is navigating a dynamic market environment with a focus on strategic growth initiatives. While the improved gross margin and expansion into new markets are positive, the increased operating expenses and the material weakness in internal controls are areas of concern.

Overall Assessment: Hold. A “Hold” rating is recommended at this time. Investors should closely monitor the company’s progress in remediating the material weakness in internal controls and its ability to sustain profitability improvements. Further evidence of successful execution of its growth strategies is also needed before considering a more positive outlook.

1. Commentary

Karat Packaging Inc. experienced a slight decrease in net income despite an increase in net sales, indicating potential challenges in managing costs or pricing. The company’s revenue grew modestly, but profitability metrics such as operating and net income margins declined. While the company maintains a healthy liquidity position, increased leverage and decreased efficiency ratios raise concerns about its financial health. Karat Packaging is navigating a changing economic landscape, and its ability to adapt its strategies will be crucial for future success.

2. Financial Ratio and Metric Analysis

Profitability

  • Gross Profit Margin

    • Metric: 38.89% (2024), 37.73% (2023)
    • Trend: Increased from 37.73% to 38.89%, a 3.07% increase.
    • Industry: The packaging industry typically sees gross profit margins between 20% and 40%. Karat Packaging’s gross profit margin is within this range and shows improvement year-over-year.
  • Operating Profit Margin

    • Metric: 8.94% (2024), 10.37% (2023)
    • Trend: Decreased from 10.37% to 8.94%, a -13.79% decrease.
    • Industry: A healthy operating profit margin for the packaging industry is typically between 8% and 15%. Karat Packaging’s operating profit margin is within this range but shows a concerning decrease.
  • Net Profit Margin

    • Metric: 7.29% (2024), 8.18% (2023)
    • Trend: Decreased from 8.18% to 7.29%, a -10.88% decrease.
    • Industry: The packaging industry typically sees net profit margins between 4% and 8%. Karat Packaging’s net profit margin is within this range but shows a decrease year-over-year.
  • Return on Assets (ROA)

    • Metric: 10.46% (2024), 11.94% (2023)
    • Trend: Decreased from 11.94% to 10.46%, a -12.39% decrease.
    • Industry: The packaging industry typically sees ROA between 5% and 10%. Karat Packaging’s ROA is above this range but shows a decrease year-over-year.
  • Return on Equity (ROE)

    • Metric: 18.48% (2024), 20.08% (2023)
    • Trend: Decreased from 20.08% to 18.48%, a -8.00% decrease.
    • Industry: The packaging industry typically sees ROE between 10% and 20%. Karat Packaging’s ROE is within this range but shows a decrease year-over-year.
  • Earnings Per Share (EPS) – Basic

    • Metric: $1.50 (2024), $1.63 (2023)
    • Trend: Decreased from $1.63 to $1.50, a -8.00% decrease.
    • Industry: EPS varies significantly based on company size and profitability. A decrease in EPS is generally viewed negatively.
  • Earnings Per Share (EPS) – Diluted

    • Metric: $1.49 (2024), $1.63 (2023)
    • Trend: Decreased from $1.63 to $1.49, a -8.59% decrease.
    • Industry: EPS varies significantly based on company size and profitability. A decrease in EPS is generally viewed negatively.

Liquidity

  • Current Ratio

    • Metric: 3.47 (2024), 3.49 (2023)
    • Trend: Decreased from 3.49 to 3.47, a -0.57% decrease.
    • Industry: A current ratio between 1.5 and 2.0 is generally considered healthy. Karat Packaging’s current ratio is significantly higher, indicating strong liquidity.
  • Quick Ratio (Acid-Test Ratio)

    • Metric: 1.91 (2024), 1.88 (2023)
    • Trend: Increased from 1.88 to 1.91, a 1.60% increase.
    • Industry: A quick ratio above 1.0 is generally considered healthy. Karat Packaging’s quick ratio indicates good short-term liquidity.
  • Cash Ratio

    • Metric: 0.68 (2024), 0.52 (2023)
    • Trend: Increased from 0.52 to 0.68, a 30.77% increase.
    • Industry: A cash ratio of 0.5 or higher is generally considered acceptable. Karat Packaging’s cash ratio indicates a good ability to cover current liabilities with cash and cash equivalents.

Solvency/Leverage

  • Debt-to-Equity Ratio

    • Metric: 0.82 (2024), 0.70 (2023)
    • Trend: Increased from 0.70 to 0.82, a 17.14% increase.
    • Industry: A debt-to-equity ratio between 0.5 and 1.5 is generally considered acceptable. Karat Packaging’s debt-to-equity ratio is within this range but shows an increase, indicating higher leverage.
  • Debt-to-Assets Ratio

    • Metric: 0.45 (2024), 0.41 (2023)
    • Trend: Increased from 0.41 to 0.45, a 9.76% increase.
    • Industry: A debt-to-assets ratio below 0.5 is generally considered healthy. Karat Packaging’s debt-to-assets ratio is within this range but shows an increase, indicating higher leverage.
  • Interest Coverage Ratio (Times Interest Earned)

    • Metric: 18.73 (2024), 21.67 (2023)
    • Trend: Decreased from 21.67 to 18.73, a -13.56% decrease.
    • Industry: An interest coverage ratio above 1.5 is generally considered safe. Karat Packaging’s interest coverage ratio is very high, indicating a strong ability to meet its interest obligations, but the decrease is a concern.

Activity/Efficiency

  • Inventory Turnover

    • Metric: 3.65 (2024), 3.53 (2023)
    • Trend: Increased from 3.53 to 3.65, a 3.40% increase.
    • Industry: Inventory turnover varies widely in the packaging industry. Karat Packaging’s inventory turnover is within a reasonable range.
  • Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)

    • Metric: 23.05 (2024), 24.98 (2023)
    • Trend: Decreased from 24.98 to 23.05, a -7.73% decrease.
    • Industry: DSO varies based on payment terms. Karat Packaging’s DSO is relatively low, indicating efficient collection of receivables.
  • Days Payable Outstanding (DPO)

    • Metric: 15.40 (2024), 16.65 (2023)
    • Trend: Decreased from 16.65 to 15.40, a -7.51% decrease.
    • Industry: DPO varies based on payment terms with suppliers. Karat Packaging’s DPO is relatively low.
  • Asset Turnover

    • Metric: 1.44 (2024), 1.47 (2023)
    • Trend: Decreased from 1.47 to 1.44, a -2.04% decrease.
    • Industry: Asset turnover varies by industry. Karat Packaging’s asset turnover is within a reasonable range.

Valuation

  • Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E)

    • Metric: 18.89 (2024), 17.39 (2023)
    • Trend: Increased from 17.39 to 18.89, a 8.63% increase.
    • Industry: The P/E ratio for the packaging industry varies. Karat Packaging’s P/E ratio is within a reasonable range.
  • Price-to-Book Ratio (P/B)

    • Metric: 2.86 (2024), 2.76 (2023)
    • Trend: Increased from 2.76 to 2.86, a 3.62% increase.
    • Industry: The P/B ratio for the packaging industry varies. Karat Packaging’s P/B ratio is within a reasonable range.
  • Price-to-Sales Ratio (P/S)

    • Metric: 0.17 (2024), 0.17 (2023)
    • Trend: No Change
    • Industry: The P/S ratio for the packaging industry varies. Karat Packaging’s P/S ratio is within a reasonable range.
  • Enterprise Value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA)

    • Metric: 8.98 (2024), 8.36 (2023)
    • Trend: Increased from 8.36 to 8.98, a 7.43% increase.
    • Industry: The EV/EBITDA ratio for the packaging industry varies. Karat Packaging’s EV/EBITDA ratio is within a reasonable range.

Growth Rates

  • Revenue Growth

    • Metric: 4.2%
    • Trend: Increased from $405,651 to $422,633, a 4.2% increase.
    • Industry: The packaging industry typically sees revenue growth between 2% and 5%. Karat Packaging’s revenue growth is within this range.
  • Net Income Growth

    • Metric: -7.1%
    • Trend: Decreased from $33,180 to $30,824, a -7.1% decrease.
    • Industry: Net income growth varies significantly based on company size and profitability. A decrease in net income growth is generally viewed negatively.
  • EPS Growth

    • Metric: -8.0%
    • Trend: Decreased from $1.63 to $1.50, a -8.0% decrease.
    • Industry: EPS growth varies significantly based on company size and profitability. A decrease in EPS growth is generally viewed negatively.

Other Relevant Metrics

  • Adjusted EBITDA

    • Metric: $55,252k (2024), $59,072k (2023)
    • Trend: Decreased from $59,072k to $55,252k, a -6.47% decrease.
    • Significance: Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP metric used by the company to show underlying operating performance by excluding certain non-cash expenses and one-time items. The decrease in Adjusted EBITDA reflects a decline in operational efficiency or increased costs not fully captured by net income.
    • Assessment: While Adjusted EBITDA can provide a clearer picture of operational performance, it’s important to consider the specific adjustments made. In this case, the adjustments seem reasonable (interest, taxes, depreciation, stock-based compensation, and some one-time costs). However, the decline warrants further investigation into the drivers of the decrease.
  • Free Cash Flow

    • Metric: $43,914k (2024), $44,738k (2023)
    • Trend: Decreased from $44,738k to $43,914k, a -1.84% decrease.
    • Significance: Free Cash Flow represents the cash a company generates after accounting for cash outflows to support operations and maintain its capital assets. It is a key indicator of a company’s financial flexibility.
    • Assessment: The slight decrease in free cash flow is consistent with the decrease in net income and Adjusted EBITDA. It suggests that the company’s ability to generate cash from its operations has slightly weakened.

⚠️ This is an experimental project and this report is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Conduct your own thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. ⚠️